in what traditionally has been considered a recession, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNBC the branch's economists see the economic picture as fairly bright. The tracker had been looking for a 1.9% decline for the second quarter, but Friday's data improved that picture to a drop of 1.2%. Investors are watching the jobs and inflation reports closely, and also have been keeping an eye on the Atlanta Fed's GDP gauge, which adjusts regularly with incoming data and gets more reliable as the end-of-quarter data rolls in. and global economies to avoid recession over the next 9-12 months, but risks have risen.' economy is still expanding, and job growth is strong enough to avoid a recession for now, but aggressive rate hikes could lead to a material slowdown,' Wilmington Trust said in a response to the jobs report. Multiple economists have been raising their recession odds recently, expecting a downturn to start either late in 2022 or early next year. Should inflation persist and rate hikes continue, that could slow the economy enough to send it into recession within the next year or so. Fresh CPI data comes out Wednesday, with economists expecting that number could be even higher considering the surge in gas prices for the month.

Inflation overall was running at an 8.6% annual rate in May, according to the consumer price index. The stronger-than-expected wage and jobs numbers are unlikely to dissuade Fed officials from approving a 75 basis point interest rate increase at their meeting later in July. It's those rate hikes, and the inflation they seek to control, that generate worry that all is far from clear for the domestic economy.ДЄverage hourly earnings rose 0.3% from a month ago but were still up 5.1% on a 12-month basis.

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